Edward Ridgway has joined the YOUWINd model team as a Partner. Edward brings in substantial experience from engineering project management for the energy industry. Edward has over the last years worked in optimising the wind turbine package within development projects heading towards the bidding stage. For example Borssele 1 and 2, Changhua 1 and 2 (900MW recently allocated), and other international projects for industry leader Ørsted (previously DONG Energy). Edward is currently working as a consultant for the main players in offshore wind energy. Before that he spent four years working in Siemens offshore wind, firstly as Technical Project Manager then Technical Sales Manager, leading sales bids for large offshore wind farms worth upwards of 500 mEUR. He also worked in wave energy as a project manager, and senior engineer installing the world’s first offshore wave energy farm in Portugal, and working with another start-up company to obtain investment and funding for a new type of wave energy device. We are thrilled to continue working with Edward in development projects in offshore wind all over the world.
This week the wind power giant announced a new wind turbine that we have not had in the YOUWINd model calculations before. We used the day to analyse further this new product, calculate estimated technical parameters and price and then and compare this new turbine to its predecessors using Walney Extension Offshore Wind Farm as an example.
According to the press release, the new turbine will have a 10MW generator and 193 rotor diameter with a direct drive technology which has been proven a great success. Also it is stated that the AEP output will be 30% higher than the previous models (without stating which model they are comparing it to though). With our YOUWINd model we did some analysis and tests of potential power curves for this new wind turbine and other ones SWP have produced in the past and compared the results. Our analysis shows how the technology over the last 10 years has evolved and how the latest wind turbine would have worked for the Walney Extension site that has the MVOW8.25MW-164 wind turbine and SWP7MW-154 wind turbines.
YOUWINd can be used as a standard model to calculate AEP, efficiencies and losses and CAPEX, OPEX and financial results, but the users can also modify all the input parameters so that their own assumptions are used for the calculations, e.g. power curves, installation vessels and overall purchase prices. But this is how we calculated the business case of the SG 10.0-193 DD turbine.
If the Walney Extension site would have been built with the latest model the overall LCOE would be 84,3 EUR/MWh, but would have been as high as almost 118 EUR/MWh with the 3,6MW-120 wind turbine that was installed at Anholt offshore wind farm. The comparison to the latest model of 8MW-167 shows also a big leap with this new technology. We anticipate though a heavier turbine with these new blades and generator but when you calculate the overall business case you can see the difference. You can also notice the difference in IRR values and CAPEX although we anticipate the OPEX being slightly higher.
“The new SG 10.0-193 DD combines experiences and knowledge from five generations of proven direct drive technology in one 10 MW turbine. A showcase of strong performance, swift time-to-market, and low risk in the offshore wind energy market,” said Markus Tacke, CEO of Siemens Gamesa
Want to try it yourself? Sign up to our YOUWINd model and start optimising your wind farm business case.
Today Orsted published their new ambitious goals for the coming years: “Ørsted sets new, ambitious targets for the group’s long-term strategic and financial development – to invest DKK 200 billion in green energy towards 2025”
See further here:
We found it very interesting that the company revealed the IRR values of their latest offshore wind farms won in a bid against harsh competition.
“Ørsted has won a series of offshore wind projects in competitive tenders since 2015 (Borssele 1&2, Hornsea 2, Gode Wind 3&4, German Cluster 1, Greater Changhua 1&2a and 2b&4 and Revolution Wind). The expected unlevered lifecycle IRR for these projects is 7.5-8.5% (average weighted capacity)”.
It is surprising that the IRR is minimum 7,5% but bear in mind that this is unlevered (not including financing costs) and in 2019 prices.
We couldn’t resist using these figures and compare to the YOUWINd model.
Fair to say the results are staggeringly close and then with the custom model calculation function it is easy to tweak parameters to fit the IRR value in the press release perfectly.